Thursday, February 04, 2010

Apple’s iPad

Things have died down enough for another post on this topic by yours truly. Let me also point out a few really excellent posts on the iPad (both pro and con):

Doc Searls: “Up the creek without an iPaddle
Rod Simmons: “Why was the Apple iPad announcement BORING
Jason McC. Smith: “The Apple iPad, explained to geeks

My view is pretty simple: I’m buying Apple stock while selling both Microsoft and Amazon (if I had any Amazon stock that is). The iPad is going to be a big seller. Maybe not on day 1 but just like the iPod and iPhone the long-term result will be huge for Apple, Steve Jobs, consumers and Apple shareholders (like me). Consumers are key. I wouldn’t buy my father or mother a PC but I’ll buy them an iPad. Explain a netbook to them? You’re kidding, right? Apple will win the consumer over and that’s where the money is. Once Apple wins over the consumers they’ll simply chip away at Amazon and the netbook manufacturers.

I’m a Kindle user. I’d rather travel with a dual-capable device like the iPad (and my netbook) rather than a Kindle (and my netbook). It will be interesting to see how Amazon reacts to this but I have a feeling they are in deep trouble. All the water is draining out of the ocean Amazon because an Apple tsunami is coming. You’d better head to higher ground - quickly! Hint, if you aren’t working on a Kindle app for the iPad you’d better be! (Is Amazon already starting to play defense? Check out this blog post: "Coming to the Kindle: A flexible color touch screen.")

Netbooks are in trouble. If I had one device that I could use I'd chose the iPad. I probably won't be able to toss everything out in favor of an iPad when they start shipping but I bet I might be able to in a few years. I loved reading Jason’s post (above) and this passage in particular:
Until now, the PC world has been differentiated by the cost of the hardware, which is a measure of the raw power possible. Pay more, get more power. But you have exactly the same experience on each machine, just slower or faster.
EXACTLY! My wife, father and mother don’t need a less expensive piece of hardware (netbook). They need a better EXPERIENCE! I expect the iPad will deliver that experience. Money is going to be diverted from netbook purchases to iPad purchases. All the water is draining out of the ocean netbooks because an Apple tsunami is coming. You’d better head to higher ground - quickly!

Many of us in this business travel a lot. Let’s start keeping count of how many iPads we see on planes after they release. I have been tracking Kindles and I will bet $100 right now that within 2 quarters after the iPad release you will see more iPads on your plane than Kindles.

Oh, and if you happen to be in corporate IT you’ll be supporting the iPad soon. It’s really hard to say “No, we don’t support those” to your CEO when he walks in the office with one. (And, it’ll be worse if he walks in and you say: “What’s that?”)

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Unknown said...

I find it the height of irony that there's an Amazon Kindle targeted ad to the right of this post. Where's Alanis Morissette when you need her?

Anonymous said...

I think the interesting thing is that traditionally the power users have helped to popularize the tech - but this device is NOT a good choice for a lot of power users, certainly anyone who writes code. The regular cattle stock will have to choose to use the iPad all by themselves...

Clayton said...

Couldn't agree with this post more. I wasn't impressed and didn't plan to buy one after watching the keynote (missing camera, etc...), but the more I think of some of the applications that could be created with this form factor and model of interaction, I've come to realize that this is going to be a big win and I could even see myself (as a power user) using one as my primary device and using a laptop only for some elements of "creation" that won't work well with an iPad.

Oh yes...Long $AAPL here already! :-)